Sources
UN Comtrade (accessed Aug 2026): own filings, HS 27 / 2701 / 2709 / 2710 / 2711, annual 2000–2026 and monthly 2010–2026.
Mirror: exports to PNG and Vanuatu reported by Australia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore, monthly from 2020.
NGFS Phase 5 downscaled national dataset (REMIND-MAgPIE 3.3-4.8, base variant): national carbon-price paths;
global fuel-price paths (oil, gas, coal), which NGFS holds uniform across countries.
Method, in one breath each
Fan: the country's own recent monthly bills, block-resampled into the trailing twelve-month window
4,000 times — the range its own history implies, not a forecast.
Scenarios: today's volumes, repriced on each NGFS path, with the national carbon price added at 0% and 100%
pass-through (US$2010 × 1.45). NGFS downscaling gives five of the six countries one default carbon path;
Chile's differs, reflecting its existing national carbon price. Differentiation is mix and volume.
Provisional
Demo for discussion — data and methods provisional, not for publication. Known gaps are printed on the panels
where they bite: mirror supplier set excludes regional re-exports; one filed weight fails a plausibility band and is
derived instead; PNG crude exports excluded pending a unit-value check.